[DNS] Australia's luckiest man?

[DNS] Australia's luckiest man?

From: doug&#167;clarity.com.au <(doug§clarity.com.au)>
Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 17:28:38 +0800 (WST)
On Tue, 30 Aug 2005, Jarrod Hollingworth wrote:

> 
> ie. If 100 domain names were available and I was one of 100 applications for
> each then the probability that I would get *a* domain name is 1 (100 x 1/100
> = 1) 

Err sorry but not so. According to your reasoning above the probability of
getting a domain under those circumstances is  "1" i.e it's certain!
 
Clearly there is no certainty of getting a domain under your scenario, you
have to realise that no matter how many trials you do the probablility
of success (or failure) remains the same (ie most of us poor sods fail 99%
of the time and in the long run things don't get better (the gamblers
fallacy) and in the long run that 99% failure rate is actually more
certain if the odds are really 100/1 against you (the gamblers paradox)!

Since we don't know the full circumstances it's hard to second guess but
forget about how many other ballots there were etc as this (statistically
speaking) is irrelevent to the fact that if a company put in for perth and
casino and there were more than 100 bidders in each lottery and you won
both then your odds of winning both are about what I stated previoulsy.

Obvioulsy if you get dunghill.com.au and you were the only entrant (or one
of a couple) then that would explain why you got so many domains in
terms of numbers and that would be quite legitimate. So auDa what
where the numbers for each domain?

To be satisified or otherwise auDa really need to spend some of that money
they pulled in and carry out a professional audit of the process. There
seems to be a prima facie case that something is not quite right so a
report from an independent auditor would be useful for all parties.

Anyway thats all from me, I've wasted enough time on this.

doug
Received on Tue Aug 30 2005 - 09:28:38 UTC

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