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From: Craig Oehlers <info§proweb.com.au>

Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 15:29:25 +0800

Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 15:29:25 +0800

You base your maths on 7 applications. Let's not forget that of the 5 domains in question, only 2 of the 7 companies successfully won the ballot... perth.com.au - AUSSIE DESTINATIONS (2) PTY LTD casino.com.au - AUSSIE DESTINATIONS (1) PTY LTD newcastle.com.au - AUSSIE DESTINATIONS (2) PTY LTD darwin.com.au - AUSSIE DESTINATIONS (1) PTY LTD airliebeach.com.au - AUSSIE DESTINATIONS (1) PTY LTD Craig Oehlers ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jarrod Hollingworth" <jarrod§backslash.com.au> To: "'.au DNS Discussion List'" <dns§dotau.org> Sent: Tuesday, August 30, 2005 3:07 PM Subject: Re: [DNS] Australia's luckiest man? > Hi Doug, > >> Ok guys here is the maths. > <snip> >> So the probability of getting the whole 5 is: >> >> 0.07 x 0.01 x .5 x .5 x .5 = .0000875 = .00875 percent >> or about 1 in 11,000 > > Umm, that's not the maths. Sure, if there were only 5 domains names > available and he was to get ALL of them your math is correct. The true > situation is that there were more available and he only nabbed a portion > (25%?) of them. > > ie. If 100 domain names were available and I was one of 100 applications > for > each then the probability that I would get *a* domain name is 1 (100 x > 1/100 > = 1), not 0.01 as per your calculations. The chance that I'd get the first > 2 > would be 0.01 x 0.01 = 0.0001 but the chance that I'd get *any* two would > be > 50%. > > If Marr had 7 applications in each of 20 domains and there were 100 > applications in total for each then he'd likely get 20 * (7/100) = 1.4 > domain names. With fewer applications on some of the names he'd likely get > more. > > Regards, > Jarrod Hollingworth > Software Development Manager > -- > AIMTec Pty Ltd. http://www.aimtec.com.au > Unit 5, 861 Doncaster Rd, Doncaster East > Victoria, Australia 3109 > Tel: +61-(0)3-9848-8636 > Fax: +61-(0)3-9848-5644 > > > --------------------------------------------------------------------------- > List policy, unsubscribing and archives => http://dotau.org/ > >Received on Tue Aug 30 2005 - 07:29:25 UTC

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