You base your maths on 7 applications.

Let's not forget that of the 5 domains in question, only 2 of the 7
companies successfully won the ballot...

perth.com.au - AUSSIE DESTINATIONS (2) PTY LTD
casino.com.au - AUSSIE DESTINATIONS (1) PTY LTD
newcastle.com.au - AUSSIE DESTINATIONS (2) PTY LTD
darwin.com.au - AUSSIE DESTINATIONS (1) PTY LTD
airliebeach.com.au - AUSSIE DESTINATIONS (1) PTY LTD

Craig Oehlers

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Jarrod Hollingworth" <jarrod&#167;backslash.com.au>
To: "'.au DNS Discussion List'" <dns&#167;dotau.org>
Sent: Tuesday, August 30, 2005 3:07 PM
Subject: Re: [DNS] Australia's luckiest man?


> Hi Doug,
>
>> Ok guys here is the maths.
> <snip>
>> So the probability of getting the whole 5 is:
>>
>> 0.07 x 0.01 x .5 x .5 x .5 = .0000875 = .00875 percent
>> or about 1 in 11,000
>
> Umm, that's not the maths. Sure, if there were only 5 domains names
> available and he was to get ALL of them your math is correct. The true
> situation is that there were more available and he only nabbed a portion
> (25%?) of them.
>
> ie. If 100 domain names were available and I was one of 100 applications
> for
> each then the probability that I would get *a* domain name is 1 (100 x
> 1/100
> = 1), not 0.01 as per your calculations. The chance that I'd get the first
> 2
> would be 0.01 x 0.01 = 0.0001 but the chance that I'd get *any* two would
> be
> 50%.
>
> If Marr had 7 applications in each of 20 domains and there were 100
> applications in total for each then he'd likely get 20 * (7/100) = 1.4
> domain names. With fewer applications on some of the names he'd likely get
> more.
>
> Regards,
> Jarrod Hollingworth
> Software Development Manager
> --
> AIMTec Pty Ltd. http://www.aimtec.com.au
> Unit 5, 861 Doncaster Rd, Doncaster East
> Victoria, Australia 3109
> Tel: +61-(0)3-9848-8636
> Fax: +61-(0)3-9848-5644
>
>
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